Current thesis
The Iran/Hormuz war produced a structural, irreversible regime change in commodity costs — Iran's parliament codified a permanent Persian Gulf Strait Authority with a $2M/ship toll. The May 20 report extends this into the AI trade: the buildout is not a software trade, it's a power trade. Wall Street "bid the brain" (Nvidia at $5T) but not the nervous system — the five conversion stages (13,800V → 0.7V) every GPU needs. A single rack rises from ~$9,500 to ~$140,000 of power semis (15×). The wide-bandgap fabs were built and cost-reduced for EVs, then inherited by AI — "capital changes ZIP codes."
Pomboy + Citrini supply the second hammer: the Fed-funds 12-mo forward just crossed above spot (cuts → hikes, 1st since SVB), oil leads BBB yields by ~6 months, and SPX/JNK have diverged for six weeks. Credit has figured out a repricing the equity market hasn't.
The 60/40 is dead. Cash flows to hard assets (gold, silver, BTC), NA-pipeline-fed energy, defense compounders, fertilizer, and the AI power layer. Charlie holds 20% cash and deploys only when 3 of 4 tripwires turn green — tonight the board reads 0 / 4. May 27 (Williams) is a cycle forecast, not a guaranteed deploy date.