Current thesis
The Iran/Hormuz war produced a structural, irreversible regime change in commodity costs — Iran's parliament codified a permanent Persian Gulf Strait Authority with a $2M/ship toll. Stack that on a US private-credit unwind, a bond market that's no longer a safe haven (10Y yields up during a shooting war), and an AI buildout whose money is rotating from the top of the cake (GPUs, models) to the bottom (power, grid, copper, transformers, specialty chemicals).
The 60/40 is dead. Cash flows to hard assets (gold, silver, BTC), NA-pipeline-fed energy (toll-free vs Hormuz), defense compounders, fertilizer, mining equipment, and physical-AI-buildout names. Charlie holds 20% cash and deploys May 27 when the Williams clock rings.